Film Study- Final Report on Cowboys Tipping Plays Via Formation

In my original study on the Cowboys’ Double Tight Right Strong Right formation (and other versions of it, shown to the right), I found that the Cowboys ran a strong side dive out of the formation 73.3% of the time through the first 14 weeks of the season.  As the season progressed, opposing defenses clearly noticed this trend on film, as the average yards per rush on the play decreased from 7.8 in the first five games to 5.0 yards per carry over the next eight games (including just 3.2 YPC against all non-Oakland-based squads).

Further, the Cowboys playcalling was even more predictable when they motioned into the formation, as they ran dive 34 out of 40 times (85%) when using motion.

I expected the Cowboys’ playcalling out of this formation to become less predictable as the season progressed, but unfortunately this was not the case.  Over the final three weeks, the team lined up in the formation 26 times, running a strong side dive 17 of these plays.  The results were even worse than in Weeks 6-14, as the team averaged only 3.1 yards per carry.  With those kind of numbers and the success Dallas had on other running plays, teams clearly were clued in on what the team was trying to do.

Over these final three weeks, the teams also motioned into the formation 9 times, and ran the same strong side dive on all but one of these plays (88.9%, as compared to 85% in the first 14 weeks).

Further evidence Dallas was tipping their plays via the formation

Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett is, at times, much too predictable in his playcalling.

If teams truly were noticing these tendencies on film and stacking against one particular play, we would expect the Cowboys to have success running plays other than the strong side dive out of the formation.  In fact, this is just what we see over the final three weeks.  Though they averaged just 3.1 YPC on the strong side dive out of Double Tight Right Strong Right during this time, they averaged over twice that number, 6.7 yards per tote, when running weak side out of the formation.

Though I still have to finish analyzing the playoffs, it is quite clear that the Cowboys were, at least at times, too predictable in their playcalling.  If I was able to spot this trend on film, then you can bet the Cowboys’ opponents (other than the Raiders) noticed it as well.  The numbers don’t lie.

Final Double Tight Right Strong Right (and variations) statistics

Weeks 1-5 (Dallas ran the formation just 5 times per game over the first four weeks, so defenses likely had yet to recognize it as a trend):  7.8 yards per carry

Weeks 6-17: 4.4 yards per carry, including just 3.2 YPC against all teams but Oakland

Weeks 1-17: ran strong side dive out of the formation 83/116 times (71.6%), including an incredible 42/49 times (85.7%) when motioning into it

Film Study- Double Tight Right/Left Strong/I Right/Left

While I have not yet concluded my film study for the 2009 season, I wanted to take the time to talk about a formation (and recurring play out of this formation) I noticed the Cowboys running more and more as the season progressed:  Double Tight Right (or Left) Strong (or I-formation) Right (or Left).  The differences between the side or whether it is Strong or I-formation are negligible (Strong just means the fullback is shaded slightly more strong side, toward the double tight ends).

Through 13 weeks, the Cowboys ran this formation 90 times.   The breakdown is shown below.

Incredibly, they ran the same play (a strong side dive) 66 of those times (73.3%).  Of the 24 remaining plays, 14 were runs to the weakside (often tosses outside). 

I understand it is important to set teams up for plays later in the game, or even later in the season, but running the exact same play 73.3% of the time out of a certain formation seems a bit excessive.

Any ‘excessive’ label, however, is of course reliant on how effective the play turned out to be.  If teams were truly noticing this trend on film and adjusting their defenses accordingly, we would expect the average yards per carry on the dive play from this formation to fall as the year proceeded.

Not surprisingly, this is just the trend that becomes evident after analyzing the film.  In Dallas’ first five games, they ran up the middle on the strong side out of the formation 19 times for 149 yards (7.8 yards per carry).  It is reasonable to believe teams did not yet catch on to the trend until after Week 5 at Kansas City because, in the first four weeks of the season, the team lined up in the formation just five times per game.

In the next eight games, however, that 7.8 yard average dropped to 5.0 yards per carry (45 carries for 223 yards).  Still a solid number, but a lot less impressive when taking into account that 113 of those yards came against an inept Oakland team.  In the other seven games, the Cowboys ran a strong side dive out of Double Tight Strong/I formation 34 times for 110 yards, an average yards per carry of just 3.2.

While the totals against Oakland obviously still count to the team’s total, the fact that so many of these late-season yards came against one opponent seems to suggest Oakland was the exception.  In fact, the Cowboys did not run for more than 30 yards per game using the play in any of the other games through Week 14.

Even more astonishing than the incredibly high percentage of dive plays coming out of this Double Tight formation is the fact that the Cowboys motioned into this formation 40 of the 90 plays, and on 34 of these 40 plays, they ran up the middle strong side (always in the ‘1’ or ‘2’ hole, depending on the side the tight ends were lined up on).  Thus, 85% of the time when the Cowboys motioned into Double Tight Right/Left Strong/I Right/Left, they ran the same exact play.  If the specific formation was Double Tight Left I Left, for example, then they ran up the ‘1’ hole (between Kosier and Gurode).

While teams obviously could not completely sell out against the run, knowing that there is an extremely good chance a team will run in a certain hole allows players to cheat a bit to that area, yet still be aware of the possibility for playaction.  The diminished results that this play yielded as the season progressed are a testament to this idea.

Within a week I will conclude my film study and report the final results of this breakdown, along with a wealth of other interesting observations and statistics.