Breaking News, Part II: Flozell Adams Released

In addition to FS Ken Hamlin, the Cowboys have also reportedly cut LT Flozell Adams.  This comes as a bit of a shock to us.  Adams was due a base salary of $5 million and a $2.5 million roster bonus in June.  Those numbers are less significant in an uncapped year, however.

With Adams gone, Dallas will now likely start Doug Free at left tackle.  We see Free as the probable opening day starter regardless of the Cowboys’ draft plans.  We have already publicly questioned Free’s ability to play on the left side.  That isn’t to say he will inevitably fail at left tackle, but simply that his effectiveness there will be a huge questions mark.

Perhaps the Cowboys did not read our list of the top five reasons to not cut Flozell Adams.  Heading that list was that Adams was still the best left tackle on the Cowboys’ roster.

Dallas is now virtually certain to address either left tackle or free safety in the first round of the draft.  However, with the top-tier guys at both spots possibly gone by the 27th selection, the Cowboys’ draft plans are a bit murky at this point.

We presume this team has something up their sleeve.  Are Ravens’ tackle Jared Gaither or Rams’ safety O.J. Atogwe possibilities?  Stay tuned.

Breaking News: Cowboys Will Release FS Ken Hamlin

Ken Hamlin has just posted on his Twitter that he will be released.  Said Hamlin “I would like to say to all of my fans that I appreciate all the love that you have showed me in Dallas.  It was a good run…..Thanks.”

Four hours earlier Hamlin tweeted that he was attending a workout this morning.  The team notified him of his release once he reached Valley Ranch.

The move comes at a curious time.  Instead of waiting until after the draft, the Cowboys decided to part ways with Hamlin now.  This may put them in a tough spot, possible forced to draft a free safety (which immediately becomes the #1 position of need).

Perhaps Dallas believes a free safety they covet, such as USF’s Nate Allen or Georgia Tech’s Morgan Burnett, will definitely be available with the 27th pick.  They may be right, but it is never productive to show your hand.  If Texas safety Earl Thomas drops, expect another team to now move ahead of Dallas to grab him (it could be argued that would have happened anyway).

Of course, those within the organization seem to love second-year man Michael Hamlin.  They believe he has the necessary skill-set to be a ball-hawking free safety.  It is unlikely, though, that the Cowboys are relying on someone with zero NFL experience.

Hamlin received a “B-” grade from us in our 2009 safety grades.

Cowboys Potential Draft Picks: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech

Demaryius Thomas could be every bit as talented as Dez Bryant. So why haven't you heard more about him?

Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant has become a focal point of Cowboys’ draft discussions of late. The controversial pass-catcher recently visited Dallas and even dined with Jerry Jones (I wonder if his meal comes out of his potential signing bonus?).

Dallas has also set up visits with Ohio’s Taylor Price, LSU’s Brandon LaFell, and Illinois’ Arrelious Benn. This sudden spike in interest in wide receivers (after Jones claimed the team is set at the position) has some wondering: are the Cowboys truly interested in using an early-round draft selection on a wide receiver, or are they simply posturing as to conceal their true intentions?

Our guess is it is the latter. Jones says he has not yet given up on Roy Williams, and we believe him. There are a variety of other positions which are much weaker than wide receiver. Unless the Cowboys are attaining incredible value, we don’t see them taking a wide receiver in the first round.

The feature of this post, Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas, is one of those players whose potential selection by Dallas could only become a reality if he is rated incredibly high on the team’s board–as in a top 15 player.

Could a player who broke his foot, has not worked out all offseason, and played in a triple option offense really be that high on Dallas’ board? We labeled him one our four ‘super-sleepers‘ for a reason. Watch the video below and judge for yourself.

Scouting Report

At 6’3”, 229 pounds, Thomas has elite size to go with excellent speed. He has not worked out this offseason due to a broken foot, but his speed is evident on film (forward to 3:18 in the video below). While you always want an official time for a player, Thomas’ injury is one that should not affect his future play.

Playing in Georgia Tech’s triple option offense is the biggest knock on Thomas. He is a raw route-runner lacking experience running pro-style routes. However, the offense allowed him to become a superb blocker.

Thomas reminds us of Calvin Johnson in that, despite his huge frame, he has tremendous balance and body control. He is tough to press and, once downfield, attacks the ball. He is Larry Fitzgerald-esque in his ability to high-point the football and catch it with his hands. He can make some outrageous catches but also drops easy ones at times.

After the catch, Thomas is extremely dangerous. He doesn’t have elite quickness, but once he gets going it is extremely difficult to bring him down. He combines his great straight-line speed with a devastating stiff arm.

Overall, we absolutely love Thomas’ skill set. Although we don’t see wide receiver as a huge need for Dallas, we would not be too upset if Thomas was the pick in the first round due to the value we believe the Cowboys would be attaining.

Projection

Thomas has been projected to get selected as high as the 10th overall selection. This is unlikely, and we would rate his chance to drop to Dallas at 50/50. If the Cowboys grade Thomas as on-par with Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant (i.e. a top 10 talent), the value may be too good to pass up. Otherwise, expect the Cowboys to skip out on Thomas and select a player at a position of more immediate need.

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Dallas Cowboys “Super-Sleeper” First Round Draft Picks

Thus far in our draft analysis we have studied those players which are considered “likely” Cowboys draft picks–the Mike Iupati‘s, the Earl Thomas‘s, and the Maurkice Pouncey‘s.  We have even taken a look at the “sleeper” candidates–the Brandon Graham‘s and the Kyle Wilson’s.

But could Dallas go completely off the radar?  Might they select someone who will shock every Cowboys fan across the nation?

In this article, we will take a look at four “super-sleepers.”  These are players not many people are projecting to go in the first round, much less to Dallas.  If we have learned anything over the years concerning the draft, though, it is to expect the unexpected.

Rodger Saffold, OT, Indiana

The most likely of our “super-sleepers” is Indiana tackle Rodger Saffold.  We see him as an extreme reach in the first round, but some analysts think he could slip into the back of it.  There have even been a few mocks which have projected Saffold to Dallas.

Is D. Thomas high enough on Dallas' board to justify a first round selection?

Still, the left tackle is a long-shot to become a Cowboy. . .which is exactly why he made our list.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech

Thomas is a guy that has perplexed us by moving up draft boards despite having done absolutely nothing all offseason.  The Cowboys have hosted Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant, so they may (or may not) be willing to select a wide receiver in the first round.  Is Thomas high enough on their board to be considered a legitimate option?

Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU

Hughes is a talented pash-rusher who could very well sneak into the back of the first round.  Is he an option for Dallas?  Most say no, and out initial reaction is the same.

However, Wade Phillips loves outside linebacker depth (of which Dallas has little).  We have also been pushing the notion of Brandon Graham to Dallas, so why not Hughes?  He has no chance of dropping to the back of the second round, so don’t count him out.

Chris Cook, CB/FS, Virginia

The “sleepiest” (sleepiest?) of sleepers on our list is Virginia’s Chris Cook.  Cook has soared up boards since the Combine, where he recorded the longest broad jump of any player and displayed supreme overall athleticism.

Dallas is in the market for a play-making free safety, so a safety that also has the ability to play cornerback fits the bill.  We have a feeling fans would be furious if the Cowboys selected Cook, but he appears to be an excellent fit in the team’s system, so we wouldn’t be extremely shocked to see it happen.

What are your thoughts on our list?  Which under-the-radar players do you think the Cowboys could select in the first round?

Dallas Cowboys 2010 Preseason Schedule Announced

The Cowboys have just released their preseason schedule:

Week 1:  Hall of Fame Game (Canton, OH) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Week 2:  Oakland

Week 3:  @San Diego

Week 4: @ Houston

Week 5: Miami

Don’t forget the Cowboys will have five preseason games this season due to the Hall of Fame game.  This should give the coaching staff ample time to evaluate the rookies and second-year players who lost last season due to injury.

The full regular season schedule will be announced at a later date (most likely in mid-April).

Cowboys Film Study: Counters

We recently studied the Cowboys’ success in 2009 running draw plays.  We discovered that, although Dallas is a superb draw-running team, the frequency with which the team ran the play caused their draw efficiency to decline as the season progressed.

In fact, the Cowboys actually averaged over a full yard less per carry on draws than on all other runs.  To regain the effectiveness of the draw, we concluded that the Cowboys must run less of them in 2010.  In doing so, defenses will be less prepared to defend them and the Cowboys can then reach the Nash equilibrium (the point where the average yards-per-carry will be maximized).

We decided to conduct a similar study on counter plays, with the results shown above.  Counter runs utilize misdirection–a running back either hesitates or starts one way before changing direction and receiving the hand-off.  Offenses will sometimes even pull linemen to the backside of the play to really confuse a defense.

Notice the incredible success the Cowboys had on counters last season, particularly Felix Jones.  Since counters are finesse type runs, it is logical that Jones received the most carries on counter plays and also gained the most yards.  His 10.0 yards-per-carry is absolutely ridiculous, particularly with a sample size as large as 22 runs.

Barber also performed fairly well on counters, perhaps because defenses were less inclined to expect a misdirection play with him in the game as opposed to Jones.  Thus, Barber’s counter average was higher than his yards-per-carry on other runs.

Tashard Choice’s low average means nothing because the sample size of just three runs is much too small to draw meaningful conclusions.

When comparing the overall counter stats with the numbers from the other types of runs (shown to the right), you can see just how effective the Cowboys were running counters in 2009.  They averaged 2.9 yards-per-carry more on counters than other runs, particularly because the opportunity for a big play is so much greater.

Notice the Cowboys had a significantly higher percentage of big plays on counters as well.  In fact, when running counters Dallas was 1.5 times as likely to run for 10+ yards, 3.5 times as likely to run for 20+ yards, and an incredible 6.9 times as likely to run for 40+ yards as compared to all non-counter runs.

It is worth noting that the percentage of negative plays on counters was higher than on non-counters, but this is to be expected from a finesse, misdirection sort of play.  Counters are generally run in situations when an offense is less likely to be debilitated from a negative play (such as 2nd and 5 as compared to, say, 3rd and 2).

Still, the Cowboys were only 1.5 times as likely to lose yardage on a counter as compared to a non-counter, so the risk was well worth the reward.

Ultimately, Dallas would be well-suited to significantly increase the number of counters they run in 2010, especially with Jones.  It may also be smart to replace some of the draw plays with counters, particularly because the two types of run plays are generally called in similar situations.

Cowboys Mailbag: 3/31/10 (LB’s, Shawn Andrews, Pacman Jones)

We all want to see what sort of impact second-year ILB Jason Williams can have in 2010.

Q:  With all of the talk about a ball-hawking safety, why is there no mention of interceptions from linebackers?

John Coleman, Bassett, VA

A: You are right that the pass defense woes of the Cowboys always get pinned on the secondary, but the back four are not the team’s the only ticket to success.  The best defenses work as a single unit, particularly against the pass.  The success of the cornerbacks and safeties, for example, is so dependent on the team’s ability to rush the passer.  There is a humongous difference between covering a player for three seconds and doing it for five.

Having said that, the Cowboys obviously have one of the best pass-rushing groups in the league.  The play of their front seven, in terms of putting pressure on the quarterback, is about as solid as one might hope.

Unfortunately, the linebackers are not nearly as successful dropping into coverage as they are getting to the quarterback.  Remember, even Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are in coverage about one-fourth of all plays.  Further, Bradie James and Keith Brooking are excellent players and tremendous leaders, but they aren’t Pro Bowl-caliber pass-defenders.

The inside linebackers’ success in pass coverage could increase with the emergence of second-year player Jason Williams.  Members within the organization love his speed and athleticism.  He may take over for Bobby Carpenter in nickel situations next season and should be able to offer a bit more play-making ability inside.

Overall, you are correct in pointing out that a large component of pass defense is the play of the linebackers.  Teams attacked the Cowboys underneath (pass attempts less than 10 yards down the field) more than any other team in the NFL in 2009.  If the linebackers can step up their game and perhaps even force a few more turnovers, it should go a long way in aiding the Cowboys’ pass defense as a whole.

Q:  What is your opinion on signing Shawn Andrews to a low-guaranteed money but high-incentive contract?  If he ever stops acting like a headcase, this could be a low-risk/high-reward move.  Thanks and love the site.

David Leitner, Philadelphia, PA

A: You answered your own question by saying “if he ever stops acting like a headcase.”  Sure, Andrews is talented, but as we have seen with Roy E. Williams, so much of the game is mental.  If a player is not in the right place mentally, he cannot perform well physically.

Andrews has had some problems with depression and we truly hopes he can sort things out for himself.  A lot of times people dismiss those sorts of illnesses as less severe than ones with physical symptoms, but that is simply not the case, even for professional athletes (and perhaps especially for professional athletes).

You are correct in assuming Andrews, or any other veteran, would be signed to a low-risk/high-reward deal, but there are other types of risks than financial ones.  If the Cowboys only concerned themselves with financial risks and on-field play, T.O. and Pacman Jones would still be in Dallas.

Pacman back to Dallas? Don't hold your breath.

Q:  Why don’t the Cowboys bring back Pacman Jones?  I know most fans will disagree, but he is still really talented and hasn’t gotten into any trouble in a few years.  He could compete with Orlando Scandrick for the nickel job.

Bobby Doler, Louisville, KY

A: We actually recently raised this question to fans on Twitter and Facebook after watching Pacman during Cowboys’ training camp on Hard Knocks.  We received approximately 150 “Hell No” answers.  That isn’t an exaggeration.

We are not 100 percent opposed to the idea because of Jones’ return abilities.  Pushing Scandrick in the slot would be nice, but Pacman could really have an immediate impact on special teams.  He showed he still has some speed left after running a low-to-mid 4.4 at his private workout, and while he struggled on returns during his lone season in Dallas, Jones has the potential to be a dominant return man.

Having said that, now is probably not the time to sign a controversial player like Pacman.  The Cowboys are extremely close to getting over the hump and competing for a Super Bowl title, and any player that is potentially as big a distraction as Jones is probably not worth the risk.

Overall, the chances of the Cowboys actually bringing back Pacman are about the same as them signing me. . .so pretty good.

Cowboys Potential Draft Picks: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

We don't see Dez Bryant as a legitimate option for the Cowboys in this draft. Do you?

Yesterday we detailed why we believe that fans should continue to support wide receiver Roy Williams.  He will battle for his job in camp, and during that time we will find out what sort of fight and determination he truly has within him.  This season will determine the path of the rest of Williams’ career.  Is he a champion?  Only time will tell.

Should Williams step up in camp, he will be the Cowboys’ 2010 starting wide receiver opposite Miles Austin.  We are so sure of this fact that we have purposely avoided discussing first round receiver Dez Bryant because, well, we just don’t see him as a legitimate option for Dallas.  Bryant is simply too talented to fall to the Cowboys’ 27th pick on April 22 (even though we brought up the possibility in a hypothetical scenario).

Further, the Cowboys have so much money tied up in the wide receiver position (we are including Austin’s future deal) that paying another WR big-time money makes little cents (cents. . .get it?).

Dallas is also excited about the future prospects of Kevin Ogletree.  The second-year man out of Virginia has turned heads within the organization.  Will it be enough to win a starting job in 2010?  Drafting Dez Bryant would do nothing less than give Ogletree little opportunity to play for the next five years.  Who knows. . .perhaps the answer to the team’s perceived wide receiver woes is already on the roster?

Nonetheless, there are more immediate needs than WR.  Yes, we all want Williams to play up to his potential, but we feel fully confident telling you that the Cowboys will not draft a wide receiver in the early rounds of this draft unless he is a dynamic return man, i.e. Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard.

Because Dallas is hosting Bryant, though, and because we can all dream, Bryant is the feature in this edition of our Cowboys “Potential Draft Picks” Series.

Scouting Report

Bryant is an absolute beast.  There is simply no other way to put it.  He is ranked No. 10 in our latest Big Board, and he is only that low due to concerns about his attitude and work ethic.

Bryant is a bit of a mystery to us.  He does bone-headed things like show up to his Pro Day with no cleats or (allegedly) arrive late to games.  However, one look at the guy lets you know he is a hard-worker.  Everybody knows Bryant can play–the question teams must answer will be how much he loves football.

On the field, we are confident in saying Bryant is every bit as talented as Larry Fitzgerald when he left Pitt.  That is a gigantic statement, but this kid has gigantic game.  His game tape and production are off the charts.  He displays top-notch hands and run after the catch ability.

We loved Michael Crabtree coming out of Texas Tech last year, and we will tell you there is really no comparing him to Bryant.  Bryant is superior in every aspect of the game–he runs better routes and is even more dangerous once he gets his hands on the ball.

Bryant recorded varying forty times at his Pro Day–from 4.52 (which he ran twice) to 4.68.  We are unconcerned about that number.  He plays as fast as any receiver in this class and we have yet to see him get caught from behind.

Again, every concern about Bryant is an off-field issue.  If he can prove he has the requisite attitude and work ethic to succeed in the NFL, there is simply no way he drops to the Cowboys.

Projection

Bryant could go as high as the top 10 (Buffalo?).  Even if some teams are scared off by Bryant’s perceived attitude problem, we just cannot see him dropping passed New England’s 22nd selection.

Would Jerry Jones trade up if Bryant makes his way into the 20’s?  Perhaps we will get the opportunity to find out.

Supporting Roy E. Williams as Starter in 2010

38 receptions.  596 yards.  Nine drops.

Rather eye-popping numbers for a No. 1 wide receiver–just not ‘eye-popping’ in the manner in which Cowboys’ fans would hope.

Has Roy E. Williams’ production to date warranted him keeping the starting job this season?  Of course not.  Is his stay in Dallas about the money?  The Cowboys would be lying if they said Williams’ contract isn’t at least partially the reason he will be on the roster in 2010.

So why are we supporting Williams’ return as the starter in 2010, particularly when one of the Cowboys’ major problems over the last few years has been supplying players with jobs they have not earned?

Call us crazy, but we think Williams is going to turn it around in 2010.  The man has been jeered basically non-stop since he arrived in Dallas.  We would be hard-pressed to find more than a handful of Cowboys fans who yearn for Williams to even return to the squad in 2010, much less remain the starter.

It isn’t as if these criticisms are unwarranted.  Even Williams knows it.  In a recent interview with the Star-Telgram‘s Clarence E. Hill, he said, “I felt like I didn’t do anything last year.  I dropped balls and what not.  I didn’t think my name would be on top of the drop list ever in my life.  It was a humbling experience.  It showed me I better get my life together.”

Those are the words of a man who has lost confidence.  Williams’ struggles the last two years are not due to a lack of talent.  Let that soak in.  Roy E. Williams is an immensely talented wide receiver with outstanding body control and, believe it or not, top-notch hands.  We would go as far as to say he has some of the best hands in the entire NFL.  Surprising for a man with nine drops last season?  Confidence, or a lack thereof, can do amazing things to people.

“I better get my life back together,” Williams stated.  Not his game. . .his life.  Being successful in life is about knowing who you are and having confidence in yourself as a person.  A player must be confident in life before he can be confident on the football field.  Right now, Williams is neither.

Thus, Williams primary offseason priority shouldn’t be running routes, or catching balls, or hitting the weight room (of course none of those things are discouraged, Roy).  No, Williams should do whatever he can to regain his confidence.  His mojo.  His swag.

And what is the best way to regain one’s ‘swag’?  By competing of course–a task Williams is relishing this season.  “I’m here to fight for my job,” Williams has claimed.  “I’m ready to battle. I think I will win. That’s my mentality.”

And battle he will.  Some insiders have already proclaimed that Williams will have to hold off undrafted second-year receiver Kevin Ogletree to retain his starting job.  This competition may be just what Williams needs to thrive.

True champions aren’t those who perform well when everything is going according to plan, but those who flourish in the face of adversity.  This is undoubtedly a time of adversity for Williams.

So get that swag back, Roy.  Be cocky.  Be brash.  Talk smack–and then back all of it up on the field.

Come September, we will find out if Roy E. Williams has truly regained his confidence.  We will find out if he is ready to compete.  Most importantly, we will find out if he is a true champion.

Never bet against a man who has nothing to lose.