We hear it all the time when discussing Ole Miss athlete Dexter McCluster.
“He’s too slow.”
“He’s too small.”
“The Cowboys already have three running backs.”
The first two complaints are legitimate concerns which NFL teams will have to factor into their grade for McCluster (although he proved his speed at his Pro Day and football is quickly becoming a ‘small man’s game’).
However, the last criticism (and that which we hear most often from fans) is unjustified. Yes, McCluster can play running back and Dallas is loaded at the position.
Contrary to popular opinion, we don’t think the Cowboys should trade or release any of their backs. So how would there possibly be room for McCluster? Because any return man as potentially devastating to the opposition as McCluster can and should make the roster regardless of their position.
Would you like your return man to play a position where he can have a huge impact? Sure. Last time we checked, though, there aren’t too many left tackles returning kickoffs (now wait…does Raiders returner Gary Russell count?).
Further, McCluster can have a huge impact at positions other than running back. Remember, he is a tremendous slot receiver with the potential to take the ball to the house every time he touches it. The NFL is evolving in such a way that these smaller, quicker players are becoming in vogue. McCluster is nearly the same weight of DeSean Jackson when he was drafted.
In a way, McCluster’s offensive prowess is a bonus for the Cowboys. The team was so unsatisfied with Patrick Crayton’s return ability last year that they signed return specialist Allen Rossum at one point. Rossum of course got injured on his first touch, but the point is that any player who figures to contribute on offense or defense will instantly be providing more than Dallas had planned for Rossum.
Who would you rather have on your team: an aging return specialist or a dynamic athlete will sensational return ability who can play the slot, run specialty plays (Wildcat, end-arounds), and even handle a few carries a game?
A list of players with whom the Cowboys have conducted pre-draft visits (as of 3/29/10):
Taylor Price, WR, Ohio
Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Navarro Bowman, LB, Penn State
Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest
Sean Lee, LB, Penn State
John Conner, FB, Kentucky
The National Football Post is reporting that Ohio wide receiver Taylor Price will meet with the Cowboys. The visit will begin tomorrow and will be of the two-day variety.
Price’s 4.41 forty-yard dash at the Combine was the second-fastest of any wide receiver, trailing only Clemson wide receiver/track star Jacoby Ford.
We see a player like Price as a more likely addition to the wide receiver corps than players like Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, and Demaryius Thomas. With Roy Williams in the midst of a $45 million deal and Miles Austin set to get paid in the near future, it just wouldn’t be a sound business decision to implement another fairly large first-round contract into an already expensive position.
It may not be what you’d like to hear, but Dallas is unlikely to address the WR spot until the middle or late rounds of the draft (if at all). A player with incredible return ability might be the exception.
A few weeks ago we examined offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s play-calling trends on 2nd down. Our results shocked us perhaps more than any we have gathered this offseason.
The graph to the left displays Garrett’s tendencies. Notice the disproportionate amount of times Garrett called a run play on 2nd down after a pass play, and vice verse. On 2nd and 3 to 7, for example, Garrett dialed up a run just 29.5 percent of the time following a run on 1st down. In the same exact situations, though, he called a run 76.5 percent of the time after 1st down passes.
Clearly a coordinator’s play-calling tendencies should not be based solely on the previous play-call (regardless of that play’s result). We concluded Garrett fell victim to the idea that “alternating creates randomization.” In his attempt to “mix it up,” Garrett actually became incredibly predictable with his calls. True randomness has no regard for previous happenings. As we have shown, however, Garrett allowed previous plays (not simply the result, but whether it was a run or a pass) to affect his current call.
After publishing that study, we received some criticism that our stats were meaningless without knowing the tendencies of other play-callers from around the league. These criticisms, though, are unjustified.
We are not simply analyzing the percentage of run or pass plays in certain situations. If that was the case, then yes, we would need to know league-wide tendencies to draw meaningful conclusions about Garrett’s own trends.
Instead, we are analyzing the percentage of runs/passes after a certain type of play. Let’s look again at the above graph. On 2nd and 3 to 7, Garrett was 2.95 times more likely to run after a 1st down pass than after a 1st down run. We are not critiquing how often Garrett called a run in general during those situations–that information is meaningless to us.
Since the down and distance on 2nd down is exactly the same regardless of the 1st down play-call, we would expect a truly random play-caller to dial up a run after a 1st down pass the same percentage of the time as after a 1st down run, regardless of what that specific percentage may be. Thus, it is the overall run/pass percentage that would require the knowledge of others’ play-calling tendencies to be meaningful, but not the percentage of runs/passes in a specific down and distance following a specific type of play.
Nonetheless, we were still curious as to the play-calling trends of other coordinators in similar situations. We had a feeling that, because humans perform so poorly in generating random sequences, we would see that others fall victim to the same fallacy as Garrett, i.e. that “mixing it up” will produce randomness.
Of course, it would be impossible for us to study film on every 2nd down play for every team for the entire 2009 season. Luckily, we came across similar statistics on AdvancedNFLStats.com (a tremendous site that we highly recommend). The numbers are listed just above.
The data consists of 14,384 plays, so the sample size is obviously large enough to draw meaningful conclusions. During those plays, teams ran approximately 50 percent of the time after a 1st down pass, but just 28 percent of the time after a 1st down run.
We contrasted these results with Garrett’s 2009 2nd down play-calls (shown to the left). Notice that Garrett calls a 2nd down run after a 1st down run at basically the exact same rate as other coordinators around the NFL. His 2nd down run ratio after a 1st down pass is also incredibly similar to the league-wide average (54.3 percent to approximately 50.0 percent).
So, is this evidence that Garrett is justified in his play-calling? Not at all. Remember, opposing offensive coordinators are not involved in a zero-sum game (meaning the success of one does not necessarily cause the failure of the other). Offensive coordinators around the league can collectively perform well, or collectively do poorly. In the case of 2nd down play calls, it is the latter.
Further, not all teams suffer from this randomization fallacy at the same rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers, for example, have done a tremendous job or randomizing their plays over the last few years (graph below). Notice that their 2nd down run/pass ratio is nearly the same after a 1st down run as it is after a 1st down pass. The closer these bars come to matching, the closer a team is to reaching the Nash equilibrium, and the more successful they will be on offense.
Thus, the failures of other coordinators around the NFL do not justify the failures of Garrett. His success is independent of that of other offensive coordinators. As we wrote in our initial study of this topic, “If the Cowboys want to maximize the productivity of their potentially explosive offense, Garrett is the first person that needs to change. Unfortunately, if his play-calling does not become less predictable, neither will the team’s fate in the playoffs.”
We aren’t backing off from that statement.
In Part I of this segment, we profiled the soon-to-be rookie offensive players we think will become the cream of the crop in the NFL. Now we take a look at the defense.
DT: Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska), Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)
This was really a no-brainer. The top two defensive tackle prospects are head and shoulders above the others. They both have the talent to play in either a 4-3 or a 3-4.
Sleeper: Jared Odrick (Penn State)
No one seems to be mentioning Odrick as a potential Cowboys’ draft selection–except us. If he can overcome some character concerns (which we believe are unjustified), he can cash in his ticket as a Pro Bowl player.
DE/OLB: Brandon Graham (Michigan), Sergio Kindle (Texas)
Graham is a personal favorite of ours because of his ability to not only rush the passer, but also effectively halt the run. He is probably a better fit for Dallas’ scheme than Kindle. Both players will likely be taken before the 27th pick.
Sleeper: Jason Worilds (Virginia Tech)
Worilds is our #44 overall player, but he could move up even further. He had the best 10-yard split of any defensive end at the Combine.
ILB: Rolando McClain (Alabama), Brandon Spikes (Florida)
Despite all of the criticism Spikes is receiving, we still look at him as having first round game tape. What else really matters? We view both him and McClain as better fits in a 3-4 scheme where they will have to participate less in sideline-to-sideline pursuit.
Sleeper: Micah Johnson (Kentucky)
Another 3-4 guy, Johnson’s forty time, like Spikes, was atrocious. However, if he checks out medically, he is worth a risk late in the draft due to his athleticism and play-making ability.
CB: Kyle Wilson (Boise State), Devin McCourty (Rutgers)
Wilson and McCourty just look the part. They have tremendous hips and fluidity, and both will also help you out in the return game. McCourty’s size and speed may even give him the highest upside of any CB in this class.
Again, another cornerback who can return punts and kickoffs. It is AOA’s combination of size and speed that we love though. He will have to show teams he is capable of playing with the big boys.
S: Eric Berry (Tennessee), Earl Thomas (Texas)
Fairly standard selections here. Berry and Thomas are simply the two best safeties in this draft–hands down.
Sleeper: Major Wright (Florida)
Wright has been slowly crawling up draft boards, even reaching the top five safeties in NFL draft analyst Mike Mayock’s rankings. Is his centerfield ball-hawking ability enough to make up for his poor tackling? Wright is a high risk/high reward selection.
NFL Network will be running a marathon of the 2008 edition of Hard Knocks featuring the Dallas Cowboys. It starts at tonight at 7 pm Central time.
Be sure to tune in, unless you have an intense dislike of Martellus Bennett (in which case we highly recommend you find something else to do).
A little preview is below.
With the 2010 Draft approaching quickly, we know a lot of you cannot seem to acquire enough draft-related information and predictions. Today, we are detailing which prospects from this class will wind up being considered the best at their position once their careers are all said and done. In Part I, we take a look at those players on the offensive side of the ball.
QB: Tim Tebow (Florida)
Tebow seems to polarize analysts and fans like no player we’ve ever seen. Yes, his mechanics are off and he isn’t your “prototypical” NFL quarterback, but we know he is going to work as hard as he possibly can to succeed.
Sleeper: Jarrett Brown (West Virginia)
Brown may have the strongest arm in this draft. He has the skill set of Jamarcus Russell without the poor attitude.
RB: C.J. Spiller (Clemson)
People will argue that Spiller will never be an every-down back in the NFL, but who is anymore? He is lightning in a bottle, reminiscent of another C.J. who was drafted two years ago.
Sleeper: Lonyae Miller (Fresno State)
Never heard of Miller? He was Ryan Mathews backup at Fresno State. At 221 pounds, he ran a 4.43 and posted 26 reps at the Combine.
WR: Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State), Arrelious Benn (Illinois), Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech)
Notice all three wide receivers we listed have prototypical size and speed (perhaps with the exception of Bryant’s long speed). The dominant wide receivers over the last decade generally tend to be of this body-type. Our favorite: Demaryius Thomas.
Sleeper: Dezmon Briscoe (Kansas), Mardy Gilyard (Cincinnati)
Briscoe is another huge pass-catcher, but Gilyard is undersized–a likely slot receiver at the next level. Both recorded poor forty times at the Combine, likely causing their stock to slip.
TE: Jimmy Graham (The U)
We aren’t nearly as thrilled about this tight end class as some other people. We are low on Jermaine Gresham, Aaron Hernandez, and Dorin Dickerson. Graham may just be more athletic than all three.
Sleeper: Tony Moeaki (Iowa)
Moeaki is a late-round prospect, but watch out for this guy. At his Pro Day, he recorded a 4.68 forty and a 36.5 inch vertical, all at 245 pounds.
OT: Russell Okung (Oklahoma State), Trent Williams (Oklahoma)
Due to the Cowboys’ likely interest in an offensive tackle, we have studied a lot of tape of the top prospects. Okung and Williams stand out as having the most consistent film of any we’ve seen.
Sleeper: Vladimir Ducasse (UMass)
We love Ducasse. His versatility to play possibly four (or even more) positions should vault him up draft boards. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him go in the early second round.
OG: Mike Iupati (Idaho), Jon Asamoah (Illinois)
Iupati will have to overcome a tendency to hold defenders, but he can also be dominant at times. Asamoah may actually be a more likely prospect for Dallas later in the draft, assuming Iupati doesn’t drop to the 27th selection.
Sleeper: Marshall Newhouse (TCU)
Newhouse has been rising up boards since the Senior Bowl. He has the sort of size (326 pounds) Dallas covets in their linemen.
C: Maurkice Pouncey (Florida)
Sleeper: Matt Tennant (Boston College)
Tennant doesn’t display the versatility of Pouncey, but he could be an option in the later rounds for the Cowboys.
- Eagles QB Donovan McNabb could be involved in a big-time trade.
- There is a lot of talk of Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant falling to the Cowboys’ 27th overall pick.
The ‘Boys playing cards
- Dallas could be a good draft away from a championship.
- Scout.com’s Draft Muncher is an excellent tool to uncover mock draft trends.
Mel Kiper thinks Florida C/G Maurkice Pouncey and Texas S Earl Thomas are rising, which cannot be good news for Dallas if true. However, Kiper believes Rutgers OT Anthony Davis could drop to the back of the first round. It would be difficult for the Cowboys to pass on a top-tier tackle at pick 27.
Interestingly, Kiper says Florida LB Brandon Spikes will fall into the 5th or 6th round. We think the kid has first round-esque game tape. He is the anti-Taylor Mays–a player who works out poorly but can just play football. He could represent the greatest value of any player in the draft should he fall into day three.