2010 NFL Draft’s Future Best Players, Part II: Defense
In Part I of this segment, we profiled the soon-to-be rookie offensive players we think will become the cream of the crop in the NFL. Now we take a look at the defense.
DT: Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska), Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)
This was really a no-brainer. The top two defensive tackle prospects are head and shoulders above the others. They both have the talent to play in either a 4-3 or a 3-4.
Sleeper: Jared Odrick (Penn State)
No one seems to be mentioning Odrick as a potential Cowboys’ draft selection–except us. If he can overcome some character concerns (which we believe are unjustified), he can cash in his ticket as a Pro Bowl player.
DE/OLB: Brandon Graham (Michigan), Sergio Kindle (Texas)
Graham is a personal favorite of ours because of his ability to not only rush the passer, but also effectively halt the run. He is probably a better fit for Dallas’ scheme than Kindle. Both players will likely be taken before the 27th pick.
Sleeper: Jason Worilds (Virginia Tech)
Worilds is our #44 overall player, but he could move up even further. He had the best 10-yard split of any defensive end at the Combine.
ILB: Rolando McClain (Alabama), Brandon Spikes (Florida)
Despite all of the criticism Spikes is receiving, we still look at him as having first round game tape. What else really matters? We view both him and McClain as better fits in a 3-4 scheme where they will have to participate less in sideline-to-sideline pursuit.
Sleeper: Micah Johnson (Kentucky)
Another 3-4 guy, Johnson’s forty time, like Spikes, was atrocious. However, if he checks out medically, he is worth a risk late in the draft due to his athleticism and play-making ability.
CB: Kyle Wilson (Boise State), Devin McCourty (Rutgers)
Wilson and McCourty just look the part. They have tremendous hips and fluidity, and both will also help you out in the return game. McCourty’s size and speed may even give him the highest upside of any CB in this class.
Sleeper: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (Indiana of Pennsylvania)
Again, another cornerback who can return punts and kickoffs. It is AOA’s combination of size and speed that we love though. He will have to show teams he is capable of playing with the big boys.
S: Eric Berry (Tennessee), Earl Thomas (Texas)
Fairly standard selections here. Berry and Thomas are simply the two best safeties in this draft–hands down.
Sleeper: Major Wright (Florida)
Wright has been slowly crawling up draft boards, even reaching the top five safeties in NFL draft analyst Mike Mayock’s rankings. Is his centerfield ball-hawking ability enough to make up for his poor tackling? Wright is a high risk/high reward selection.
Cowboys News and Notes: 3/27/10
- Eagles QB Donovan McNabb could be involved in a big-time trade.
- There is a lot of talk of Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant falling to the Cowboys’ 27th overall pick.
The ‘Boys playing cards
- Dallas could be a good draft away from a championship.
- Scout.com’s Draft Muncher is an excellent tool to uncover mock draft trends.
Cowboys Potential Draft Picks: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, CB, Indiana of PA
We recently detailed the 2009 success of the Cowboys’ cornerbacks in our Grading the ‘Boys segment. Leading the pack was Mike Jenkins, who really took tremendous strides last season. The second-year player led the team in interceptions, pass deflections, completion percentage against, and yards-per-attempt against.
Surprising to some was how highly we graded Terence Newman (B+). Newman has been underrated for years, though, and last season he was finally healthy enough to perform well over the course of an entire 16-game schedule. Newman was thrown at on just 9.49 percent of plays, making him the least targeted cornerback on the team.
The success of Jenkins and Newman was not matched by nickel CB Orlando Scandrick. Scandrick, who began the season as a rotational starter, regressed in his second season in Dallas. He was actually one of the most targeted players in the league and yielded a pedestrian 62.9 percent of passes his way to be completed.
The difference between Jenkins and Scandrick doesn’t appear to be in their skill sets as much as it is in their minds. Jenkins gained confidence at a seemingly exponential rate as the 2009 season progressed. Scandrick, who was often in position to make a play, often displayed a bit of hesitation which ended up costing him by year’s end.
We believe Scandrick has the adequate physical tools and mindset to rebound nicely in 2010. Still, a team can never have enough talented cornerbacks. Thus, the Cowboys may be looking to bolster the position during the draft, perhaps even in the early rounds.
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah is a small-school cornerback out of Indiana University of Pennsylvania. He is a personal favorite of ours not only because of his coverage, but also due to his electrifying return ability. The latter of these skills is the primary reason we view him as a target for Dallas (we rated a dominant return man as the team’s #1 draft need).
Scouting Report
Owusu-Ansah is eerily similar to Cardinals’ CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. At 6’0”, 207 pounds, Owusu-Ansah has the requisite size to be solid in run support. He does not have the blazing speed of DRC (AOA ran a 4.47 at the Combine), but he may actually be a more versatile player.
Owusu-Ansah was highly productive in college, albeit against DII talent. The major knock on him coming out is that he has not faced elite competition. How will he react when he gets beat? That basically never happened at IUP, so his ability to respond to adversity is a question mark at this point.
For Dallas, Owusu-Ansah would be an upgrade at both punt and kickoff returner. He displays great vision and has the strength to break tackles. His biggest weakness on returns is his propensity to use his superior athleticism to dance around before getting up-field. That will obviously not work in the NFL.
A possible concerning issue for Dallas is the fact that Owusu-Ansah is probably better suited to play outside than in the slot. If the team is interested in bringing someone in to compete with Scandrick, they may want to look elsewhere. However, this concern could easily be alleviated by playing Newman in the slot and Owusu-Ansah outside in nickel situations (assuming AOA beats out Scandrick).
Projection
AOA is steadily climbing draft boards just as Rodgers-Cromartie did two seasons ago. While he won’t be a first round selection, AOA figures to go somewhere in round two. In our opinion, he represents great value if he falls to Dallas at pick #59. We would rate the odds of this happening at about 50/50.
Cowboys Potential Draft Picks: Nate Allen, S, USF
Our 2009 Cowboys’ safety grades will be out soon, but no grade is required to know that Dallas could benefit from the addition of a ball-hawking safety. We don’t see it as the #1 team need, but many people do. Thus, safety, along with offensive tackle, are the most popular positions chosen for Dallas in mock drafts.
The problem for the Cowboys is that the top two ball-hawks, Eric Berry and Earl Thomas, will likely be long gone by the time they select at pick #27. USC’s Taylor Mays may still be on the board, but his poor hips and lack of quickness make him a poor fit for Dallas.
People within the organization have been saying great things about second-year safety Michael Hamlin. The Cowboys obviously won’t rely on him though, so safety is a legitimate first round option for the ‘Boys.
Scouting Report
Safeties who are considered “ball-hawks” generally have cornerback-type size, but USF’s Nate Allen is an exception. At 6’1”, 205 pounds, Allen’s physique allows him to be above-average in run support. He takes good angles and can actually be quite physical at times.
In addition, Allen also has the skill set to play a “centerfield” type position. He excels at tracking the ball in the air and making plays due to his fluidity and exceptional change of direction.
Allen lacks elite speed, so his man-to-man coverage skills are only average. He is better suited playing in a zone, allowing his instincts to take over.
We see Allen as a bit underrated. He has game-changing ability–a trait the current Cowboys’ safeties lack. He would be a great fit in Dallas’ scheme because of his ability in run support and the fact that he does not give up a lot of big plays (yet he is still able to force turnovers).
Projection
Allen has been soaring up boards of late. Once considered a mid-to-late second round selection, there have been rumors of Allen sneaking into the back of the first round. There is practically zero chance Allen will be available for Dallas when their second pick rolls around, but he might be a slight reach at pick #27.
Allen is the type of player that could force the Cowboys to either trade out of the first round or move up in the second. If Dallas does end up trading back come draft time, you can expect that Allen is probably one of the players they are seeking.
How Important is Intelligence in Football?
With so much attention being placed on the Wonderlic exam, we want to address the importance of intelligence in football. First, let’s take a look at some interesting Wonderlic scores (the highest attainable score is 50):
Dan Marino- 15
Ben Watson- 48
Vince Young- 15
Michael Vick- 20
Kevin Curtis- 48
Matt Leinart- 35
Drew Henson- 42
Donovan McNabb- 14
Terry Bradshaw- 15
Jim Kelly- 15
Randall Cunningham- 15
Ryan Leaf- 27
Steve McNair- 15
Jason Garrett- 36
Troy Aikman- 29
Clearly a high Wonderlic score is not a golden ticket to future NFL success, while a low one is not necessarily indicative of future failures. Except in the case of McNabb. 14. Nice.
But how important is true intelligence, apart from a standardized test result, in becoming a successful NFL player? We would argue that more important than being intelligent is being able to translate one’s intelligence to the football field. Dan Marino’s Wonderlic score of 15 obviously left something to be desired, but he certainly had “football smarts.”
Going hand-in-hand with intelligence is player conduct. When analyzing character, teams not only search through a player’s history of conduct, but also attempt to determine if he is intelligent enough to stay out of trouble in the future.
Two contrasting example of this are Randy Moss and Ryan Leaf. Moss slipped in the 1998 Draft due to concerns about his character (as Cowboys fans know all too well). However, Moss has used his intelligence to (generally) avoid trouble since entering the league. In fact, Moss was voted one of the smartest players in the entire NFL by his peers.
On the other end of the spectrum is Leaf, whose struggles are well-documented. Leaf didn’t fail in the NFL because of a lack of talent, though, but rather because he was a headcase. Despite scoring a 27 on the Wonderlic (a fairly good score), Leaf was one of the dumbest players we can remember. He did not translate his intelligence into becoming a better football player.
The key for teams is not only to decipher players’ intelligence, but also their ability to implement those smarts into improving on the field. For the Cowboys, it could mean the difference between either drafting or missing out on this year’s Randy Moss.
Cowboys Mailbag: 3/18/10 (Rotating linemen, compensatory picks)
Q: Why would the Cowboys not draft a LT prospect to rotate with Flozell Adams a few plays per game, and do the same with other OL personnel (Colombo/Free)?
John Coleman, Bassett, VA
A: Line substitutions have traditionally been limited to the defensive side of the ball, but we kind of like your thinking here. Football has evolved into a sport of personnel packages. The Cowboys bring in different packages of skill positions players on offense based on down and distance. They do the same with the entire defense.
So why does the offensive line, on basically every NFL team, remain stagnant? Our best guess is that you always want your best players protecting your quarterback. It could be risky, for example, substituting a rookie for Flozell Adams in a 3rd and Long situation.
Still, there do seem to be situations where the idea makes a lot of sense. The Cowboys loved what they saw in Doug Free last season, so why not rotate him with Marc Colombo at right tackle? We graded Free as superior to Colombo in pass protection, so perhaps the Cowboys should consider substituting Free in during passing situations, just as they do with Tashard Choice.
These “linemen packages” do not necessarily have to tip the defense as to a certain play. The substitution of Choice on 3rd down, for example, does not guarantee a pass. Further, during situations such as 3rd and Long when the defense all but knows a pass is going to be dialed up, why not have your best pass protectors in the game?
The problem with substituting a rookie for Adams is that the veteran left tackle’s weakness is obviously pass protecting. Trusting a rookie in 2nd and 5 is a bit different than 3rd and 10 on Romo’s blind side against the opponent’s best pass-rusher. However, you could make the argument that he would still be better than Adams in pass protection at this point.
Q: When will the NFL announce the compensatory draft picks for this year? Do you think Dallas will receive anything better than a single pick at the end of the 6th round? Thanks!
Edward Toerner, Lafayette, LA
A: Good question Edward. Compensatory picks will be awarded at the annual NFL meeting, this year being held from March 21-24.
Unfortunately, Dallas does not stand to receive anything too worthwhile again this season in terms of compensatory selections. These picks are based not only on free agents a team loses, but also those a team signs.
So while the squad could have benefited greatly from Chris Canty signing with the Giants (or even a little from Kevin Burnett signing with the Chargers), these losses are negated because Dallas picked up players such as Keith Brooking, Gerald Sensabaugh, and Igor Olshansky.
Now, a team can still be awarded selections for losing better free agents (i.e. ones who sign for more money), so the Cowboys should be in line to receive a selection via that route. The problem is that, without losing more free agents than they signed, the Cowboys cannot attain any higher than a 7th round selection for any players lost.
Further, salary is not the sole determiner of a player’s value (although it is the primary factor). Playing time also counts some. Remember, though, that Canty got injured and missed basically the entire season.
Altogether, don’t bank on the Cowboys receiving anything special here in the coming week.
Is Doug Free Suited to Play Left Tackle?
Doug Free did a respectable job filling in at right tackle for the injured Marc Colombo last season. We gave him a ‘B-‘ in pass protection and a ‘C+’ in the run game in our 2009 Offensive Line Grades. In fact, he actually performed slightly better than starter Marc Colombo in our rankings.
Cowboys fans and writers alike are assuming Free will eventually make the transition to left tackle. Not so fast. Free performed admirably for a backup player, but do we really think he is ready to protect Romo’s blind side?
The uncertainty surrounding Free’s ability to play left tackle is one of the main reasons we believe the Cowboys should retain Flozell Adams in 2010. At right tackle, Free rarely faced the opposition’s best pass-rusher (although he did effectively neutralize Jared Allen in the divisional playoff game).
Still, he has not withstood the test of time. Entrusting a player with only half a season of play under his belt with the task of keeping the franchise quarterback safe is risky to say the least.
Thus, expect the Cowboys to address the tackle position early (and perhaps often) in the upcoming draft. In our opinion, drafting a stud tackle to groom behind Adams for a year is the most rational path for Dallas to take and their most likely ticket to success. This rookie could prepare himself to start in 2011, with Adams then leaving the team or possibly moving to guard.
Free might eventually battle Colombo for the starting right tackle job, but he certainly makes a very trustworthy swing tackle.
Top 90 2010 NFL Draft Prospects: Post-Combine
Below is our revised list of the top 2010 NFL Draft prospects, along with a rundown of big risers and fallers. Players changed positions not only based on Combine results, but also due to extra opportunity for us to study game film.
Risers
Sean Weatherspoon, Devin McCourty, Dan Williams, Morgan Burnett, DeMaryius Thomas, Arrelious Benn, Vladimir Ducasse, Golden Tate, Eric Norwood, Kareem Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Geno Atkins, Roger Saffold, Ricky Sapp, Marshall Newhouse, Major Wright, Ben Tate
Fallers
Dez Bryant, Joe Haden, Anthony Davis, Dezmon Briscoe, Donovan Warren, Brandon LaFell, Jon Asamoah, Everson Griffen, Brandon Ghee, Chad Jones, Jordan Shipley, Damian Williams, Myron Rolle, Jason Fox, Aaron Hernandez, Micah Johnson
As before, players we see as potential Cowboys’ draft picks are listed in bold. Some players not in bold may be good fits in Dallas but the team just won’t be in position to select them.
1 Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
2 Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
3 Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
4 C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
5 Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
6 Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
8 Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
9 Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan
10 Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
11 Joe Haden, CB, Florida
12 Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
13 Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, USF
15 Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida
16 Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
17 Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
18 Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
19 Jared Odrick, DT/DE, Penn State
20 Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
21 Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
22 Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
23 Jahvid Best, RB, California
24 Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
26 Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU
27 Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
28 Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech
29 DeMaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
30 Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois
31 Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
32 Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Kansas
33 Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
34 Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan
36 Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
37 Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, Ole Miss
39 Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
40 Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati
41 Vladimir Ducasse, G/T, UMass
42 Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
43 Chris Cook, CB/FS, Virginia
44 Jason Worilds, DE, Virginia Tech
45 Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
46 Eric Norwood, LB, South Carolina
47 Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
48 Nate Allen, S, USF
49 Perrish Cox, CB, Oklahoma State
50 Daryl Washington, LB, TCU
51 Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State
52 Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, CB, Indiana of Pennsylvania
53 Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
54 Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
55 Jon Asamoah, G, Illinois
57 Geno Atkins, DT, Georgia
58 Roger Saffold, OT, Indiana
59 Everson Griffen, DE, USC
60 Alex Carrington, DE, Arkansas State
61 Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest
62 Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
63 Chad Jones, S, LSU
64 Ricky Sapp, DE, Clemson
67 Marshall Newhouse, G, TCU
68 Major Wright, S, Florida
69 Corey Wootton, DE, Northwestern
70 Reshad Jones, S, Georgia
71 Joe McKnight, RB, USC
72 Amari Spievey, CB, Iowa
73 Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
74 Mike Johnson, G, Alabama
75 Ben Tate, RB, Auburn
77 Carlton Mitchell, WR, USF
78 Cam Thomas, DT, UNC
79 Damian Williams, WR, USC
80 Myron Rolle, S, Florida State
81 D’Anthony Smith, DT, Louisiana Tech
82 Jared Veldheer, OT, Hillsdale
83 Tony Washington, OT, Abilene Christian
84 Jason Fox, OT, Miami
85 Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida
86 Micah Johnson, LB, Kentucky
87 Zane Beadles, G/T, Utah
88 Greg Hardy, DE, Ole Miss
89 Clifton Geathers, DE, South Carolina
90 Navarro Bowman, LB, Penn State
Cowboys Potential Draft Picks: Lamarr Houston, DT/DE, Texas
In a recent mailbag, we discussed the possibility of Dallas drafting a true nose tackle and moving Jay Ratliff to defensive end in certain situations (and subsequently why we believe it is a poor idea). Ratliff proved he is not an elite defensive end and that his speed and quickness are his ticket to success only when he is lined up at the nose.
While we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the Cowboys selecting a true nose tackle, we think it would come later in the draft. The first few selections will be expected to make a near-immediate impact. Since Ratliff plays nearly every snap at defensive tackle and moving him to end is not a legitimate option, the upside of a rookie NT would be limited.
Instead, we believe the Cowboys will be searching for a player who can line up at both tackle and end in their 3-4 system. We have already mentioned Penn State’s Jared Odrick, UCLA’s Brian Price, and Purdue’s Mike Neal as candidates for this job.
In this version of our “Potential Draft Picks” Series, we look at the possibility of Texas DT Lamarr Houston making the transition to 3-4 end.
Scouting Report
At 6’3”, 305 pounds, Houston has size similar to current Cowboys’ defensive end Marcus Spears. Scouts at the Combine noted how little fat was evident on his frame. His 4.85 forty and 9’6” broad jump are exceptional for his size.
It is rather remarkable how much Houston has flown under-the-radar. He is a rather athletic individual (as shown by his Combine numbers) with great quickness. Of the DT/DE prospects we have studied thus far, Houston is the most like Ratliff. As is the case with Ratliff, he has a very high motor. He rarely disappears on film and there just is not much bad game tape on Houston. Coaches will love his consistency.
It is his lack of outstanding game film that may have him not rated as a top-tier tackle, but this could be due to the nature of Texas’ system more than anything.
Some people question whether Houston will fit better as a three-technique or five-technique player. For Dallas, he would be playing the latter, although we do think his similarities to Ratliff make him a candidate to also win the backup job inside at nose tackle.
For a big interior lineman, Houston also displays a wide range of pass-rush moves. If he can work on his run defense, he could become an excellent complement to Marcus Spears.
There are a few concerns about Houston’s character. He was arrested two years ago for a DWI and, although not necessarily a mark of character, Houston ran at the Combine in tights and bright yellow track shoes. Thus, if the Cowboys are not interested in players who draw attention to themselves, Houston may not be a good fit.
Projection
Houston’s stock has picked up a bit since the Combine, as he cemented himself as the top “second-tier” defensive tackle. Once regarded as a second or third round prospect, there are many draft analysts projecting him to go in the back of the first round. There is little chance he makes it to the end of round two, although with such a deep class, you never know.
For Dallas, selecting Houston in the first round just does not make sense. It would be poor value and there will be better options on the board at the time. If they trade into the early-to-mid second round, then Houston will become a legitimate option. Like we said, though, the grade the Cowboys give Houston will depend on how much of a character concern he is deemed.