Robert Brewster: The Key to the Cowboys’ Draft?

Could a player with zero NFL snaps influence the Cowboys' draft plans?

Robert Brewster, the Cowboys’ 2009 third round draft pick out of Ball State, was drafted as an offensive tackle.  After tearing his pectoral muscle last offseason, however, Brewster never got playing time or practice reps at tackle.

The team stated a few weeks ago that they would try Brewster out at guard, but there are now rumors that he will actually remain at tackle.

The future position of this second-year player is so important because it could determine which path Dallas takes in the upcoming draft.  If they view him as the eventual successor to Kyle Kosier or Leonard Davis inside, then perhaps they will look to draft an offensive tackle in round one.  Doing so might require that the Cowboys move up to the early 20’s.

On the other hand, if Brewster is seen as best-suited to play outside, then Idaho’s Mike Iupati or Florida’s Maurkice Pouncey may be on the Cowboys’ radar as versatile interior linemen.

Brewster’s position also has ramifications for current Cowboys such as Pat McQuistan, Montrae Holland, and Cory Procter.  If Brewster does indeed remain at tackle, for example, there is little chance that McQuistan remains in Dallas in 2010, regardless of the team’s draft plans.

Perhaps, though, our thinking is backwards.  It is very possible that, instead of Brewster determining which way the Cowboys go in the draft, the draft will determine which position Brewster plays.  This is a more likely scenario in our opinion, as it makes little sense to let a second-year third-rounder with zero playing time affect draft plans.

Instead, if the Cowboys are able to land a player such as Oklahoma OT Trent Williams, expect Brewster to move to guard.  This would be bad news for both Procter and Holland, who are in a bit of a catch 22 situation:  if the Cowboys draft a guard early then they are obviously in trouble, but if Dallas drafts a tackle early, Brewster may transition to guard and take one of their roster spots anyway.

Cowboys Potential Draft Picks: Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida

Florida's Maurkice Pouncey can play center, guard, and even right tackle in a pinch.

In our final Offensive Line Grades, we detailed how efficient the Cowboys’ interior linemen were in 2009.  We gave Kyle Kosier a “B” grade and both Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode an “A-.”  Thus, we see the interior linemen as one of the strengths of the Cowboys’ offense.

The problem, though, is that the backup situation at both guard and center is worrisome.  Guards Duke Preston and Cory Procter received tender offers from the Cowboys, and there are rumors that the team is negotiating with unrestricted free agent Montrae Holland on a new deal.  Despite this, Dallas would be ecstatic to add a more reliable and consistent backup interior lineman.

It is likely both this weak backup situation and the soon-expiring contract of Kyle Kosier which have the Cowboys linked to Idaho guard Mike Iupati.  In our opinion, though, the Cowboys could kill two birds with one stone by selecting a player who can play both guard and center.

It is this sort of versatility that the team loves and which Florida C/G Maurkice Pouncey possesses.

Scouting Report

At 6’5”, 318 pounds, Pouncey has good size to anchor a line.  In addition to center and guard, there is also a possibility that Pouncey could swing out to tackle in a pinch.  This kind of versatility is almost non-existent and is what has some scouts rating him as a top 15 prospect.

Pouncey would fit well into the Cowboys’ scheme because of his run-blocking abilities.  He has tremendous lower body strength and exceptional quickness off the ball for his size.  This quickness and fluidity also allows Pouncey to be above-average in pass protection.  He utilizes his athleticism in gaining leverage to overpower larger defensive tackles.

We talked to one scout who thinks Pouncey will be an All-Pro player almost immediately.  The key for Dallas is whether they grade Pouncey as a guard as well as other teams will grade him as a center.

Projection

We think Pouncey may surprise people with how high he gets selected in the draft.  The Cowboys are not the only team that values versatility, so we see Pouncey as a near-certain first round selection.  In fact, we are not convinced Iupati will get drafted before Pouncey.

Having said that, there are so many talented players that someone must drop, and teams frequently value other positions more than center and guard.  If Pouncey is still available at pick #27, we expect the Cowboys to seriously consider him.  The downside to drafting Pouncey is that he may not provide an immediate impact, a trait for which Dallas could be searching in the first round of this draft.

Grading the ‘Boys, Part II: Offensive Line (Run Blocking and Overall Grades)

In our initial “Grading the ‘Boys” segment, we analyzed the ability of each lineman to protect the quarterback.  A lot of interesting results came from that study, many of which confirmed the notion that the Cowboys’ tackles struggled in pass protection while the interior linemen excelled.

We would expect the tackles’ pass protection numbers to be inferior, of course, because they are facing opposing teams’ best pass-rushers.  Flozell Adams in particular was often matched up against the defense’s most dominant sack specialist.  Still, we would expect the gap between the positions to be less than that which we observed.

Overall, we assigned the linemen with the following grades in pass protection:

Pass Protection Grades

1.  Andre Gurode:  A

2.  Leonard Davis:  A-

3.  Kyle Kosier:  B+

4.  Doug Free B-

5.  Marc Colombo:  C

6.  Flozell Adams:  D+

Our analysis of the linemen’s run blocking success provided much different results.  A chart displaying each player’s statistics is below.  There are a few issues we must address before assigning grades.

In this play, the "point of attack" blockers are labeled with a red dot.

• The number of rushes and yards listed below is nowhere near the actual final season statistics.  We assigned each lineman with the results of run plays during which he was a blocker at the “point of attack” (see display to the right).  During each play, there are generally two linemen blocking at the “point of attack” (except on runs outside of the tackle box), and thus there are usually two linemen to receive the statistics from a single run.

• As we noted, one would expect the tackles to have worse numbers in pass protection.  In a similar manner (but vice versa), we would expect the interior linemen to have inferior run blocking statistics.  This is not only because the middle of the field is clogged with gigantic defensive linemen and linebackers, but also because teams will often run up the middle in short-yardage and goal line situations, thus limiting both the big play possibility and average yards-per-carry.

• The average-yards-per carry number is important within a position (LT vs. RT, for example), but less useful when comparing, say, a center and a tackle.  Averages can be misleading because of outliers (in this case, long runs), so weighing the ability of each lineman to provide big plays yet still minimize negative ones may be a more effective method of determining their productivity.

• Dallas did a decent job of mixing up the direction of runs, although they may have been well-served running counters and tosses outside of the tackles a bit more.  Expect the number of those sorts of runs to go up next season with the probable increased workload of Felix Jones.

• Penalty counts were dissected in our pass protection segment, but they were certainly a factor in both sets of grades.

Note: The best percentage for each category is in blue, the worst in red.

And now for the run blocking grades.

LT Flozell Adams:  B

While Adams did an atrocious job in pass protection, he was respectable in the run game.  The 4.98 yards-per-carry average when running behind Flozell is decent but not outstanding.  We actually expected this number to be a bit higher, particularly because the Cowboys ran inside so often in short-yardage situations.  They did run behind Adams often in goal line situations, particularly when in the Wildcat, so that could contribute to the modest average.

The most surprising statistic is the very low percentage of 20-plus yard runs behind Flozell.  In comparison, the Cowboys garnered a big run play over three times as frequently when running behind Doug Free.  This could be taken as a positive, though, as Adams’ yards-per-rush was decent despite the lack of outliers.

Adams did do a fairly good job limiting negative run plays.  Running outside generally holds a higher risk and higher reward than running up the middle, making his 9.24 percent negative run frequency respectable.  The high rewards that often come with running outside, though, are also a reason Adams’ low big play percentage is so surprising.

LG Kyle Kosier:  B-

Kosier gets nearly the same grade as Flozell, despite a lower average yards-per-carry, due to his position.  While Dallas did run behind Leonard Davis a bit more frequently than Kosier, particularly in must-have short-yardage plays, Kosier was asked to do a lot more blocking than Flozell in situations with limited upside.  Thus, we would expect his average to be lower.

We would still like to see Kosier raise that yards-per-carry number to about 4.5.  Also, only 11.45 percent of runs behind Kosier went for ten or more yards– the lowest on the team.

Overall, Kosier was not quite as good in the run game as he was in pass protection, but still adequate.

C Andre Gurode:  B

Gurode’s 3.72 average yards-per-carry was by far the lowest on the team, but that is to be expected.  At center, Gurode is only in the “point of attack” on runs directly up the middle.  The upside is very limited on these runs.

This limited upside is why the rate of big plays when running behind Gurode is so impressive.  In fact, Gurode provided the second-most 10 yard runs on the team and the most runs for 20 yards.

RG Leonard Davis:  A-

Davis’ 4.57 yard average is good for a guard, especially since he was nearly always a “point of attack” blocker during important short-yardage plays.  Leonard did an excellent job providing big plays while also minimizing the negative ones.

The Cowboys ran behind Davis more than any other lineman, but Leonard yielded the lowest percentage of negative plays of any lineman.  In fact, his 19:12 big play-to-negative play ratio was best on the team.

RT Marc Colombo:  B-

Running behind Colombo was the ultimate risk/reward in 2009.  Colombo’s 6.25 yards-per-rush average was outstanding, but his sample size of 52 runs is too limited for this number to be considered very significant.  An incredible 17.3 percent of runs behind Marc went for 10 or more yards, by far the highest on the team.

Colombo also yielded seven negative runs out of those 52 attempts, making running behind him riskier than anyone else.  These negative plays can be drive killers, which is why Colombo received a “B-” despite holding the highest average.

RT Doug Free:  C+

Doug Free’s performance, like we anticipated, was about average in both the passing and running games.  He was neither dominant nor a liability.  His 4.54 yards-per-rush average, which was lower than Leonard Davis’ average, is much too low for a tackle.  Further, blocking next to the lineman who we rank highest should increase your average, making 4.54 an even worse number.

Free did a decent job of providing big plays in the run game, but he also yielded too many negative ones.

Leonard Davis, as you may have guessed, was the Cowboys' most productive lineman in the run game.

Thus, we rank the performance of the 2009 Cowboys’ linemen, in terms of run blocking, as follows:

Run Blocking Grades

1.  Leonard Davis:  A-

T2.  Flozell Adams:  B

T2.  Andre Gurode:  B

T4.  Kyle Kosier:  B-

T4.  Marc Colombo:  B-

6.  Doug Free:  C+

In calculating our final overall grades for each lineman, we cannot simply combine our run and pass grades equally.  Run blocking is certainly important and a dominant running attack can allow a team to control a game, but in today’s day and age, passing is king.

So how should we weigh each component?  The most logical method, in our opinion, is to use the same run/pass ratio the team did during the season to determine our final grades.

Jason Garrett dialed up a pass play 585 times in 2009, while calling just 402 runs on the season.  This equates to almost exactly a 60/40 split, meaning we will count our pass protection grades as 60 percent of the overall grades.

For example, Flozell Adams received a “D+” in pass protection and a “B-” in run blocking.  We will give a 67 percent for the “D+” and an 83 percent for the “B-“.  In weighting those percentages in a 60/40 manner, Flozell’s final grade is a 73.4 percent, or a “C-“.

Flozell Adams is still an adequate run blocker, but his struggles in pass protection are a major reason Dallas is rumored to be interested in selecting an offensive tackle early in the 2010 Draft.

Overall Linemen Grades

LT Flozell Adams:  73.4 (C-)

LG Kyle Kosier:  85.4 (B)

C Andre Gurode:  91.0 (A-)

RG Leonard Davis:  93.0 (A-)

RT  Marc Colombo:  79.4 (B-)

RT Doug Free:  80.6 (B-)

Overall, the Cowboys line played fairly well throughout the regular season.  The interior linemen outperformed the tackles, particularly Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode.  Our statistics seem to pass the eye test, as Gurode and Davis appeared to be the most consistent Dallas’ linemen all season.

As an entire group, we gave the line an 83.3 (B-) combined grade in pass protection, an 84.3 (B) team grade in run blocking, and an 83.9 (B) overall.

The offensive line imploded in the Divisional playoff game in Minnesota, and we all saw how vastly that can affect the offense.  There simply is no way to be a consistently productive offense without an effective offensive line.

In our next “Grading the ‘Boys” segment, we will analyze the productivity and efficiency of the running backs.

Grading the ‘Boys, Part I: Offensive Line (Pass Protection)

Center Andre Gurode received our highest grade for any lineman.

The Cowboys line is a massive wall of human flesh– one of the largest in the league.  The group is composed of five veterans who have great experience playing with one another.

Without looking at any numbers, we know that the ‘Boys line provided some of the biggest running lanes in the NFL.  Their size and power made it rather easy, relatively speaking, to drive opponents of the ball.

From time to time, however, the group struggled in pass protection.  You can’t have it all, and overall they are an above-average line.  Still, providing better pass protection for Romo is essential to the Cowboys’ success.  In Minnesota during the playoffs, you saw how poor pass protection can affect an entire offense’s rhythm and productivity.

There are some misconceptions about which linemen are the Cowboys’ most dominant.  We believe the film doesn’t lie, and the numbers that are garnered from the tape are proof of that.  Take a look at the numbers we obtained from our film study listed on the chart below.

Note: The best percentage for each category is in blue, the worst in red.

Note:  Snap count numbers are only those plays in which the players were in pass protection.  Also, sack numbers do not add up to total sacks yielded because some were given up by tight ends, backs, or unblocked.  Finally, penalty counts are representative of all plays, not just passes.

And now for the grades.

Pass Protection Grades

LT Flozell Adams:  D+

Adams struggled mightily in pass protection all season, giving up nine sacks and, perhaps more importantly, a devastating 42 quarterback pressures.  It is certainly difficult to block a team’s best pass-rusher, as Flozell had to do more than anyone on the team.  Still, we would expect his numbers to be better than this.

Further (and I don’t want to beat a dead horse so I won’t go into great detail), we all know Adams’ struggles with penalties.  He had 13 this year, tied for 5th most in the NFL.

LG Kyle Kosier:  B+

Kosier is sorely under-appreciated, often labeled by media as the “weak link” of the Cowboys’ line.  He gave up just one sack all season, though, and had good numbers in both quarterback hits and pressures allowed.  He obviously didn’t face the speed rushers that Adams, Colombo, and Free faced, but his ability to handle defensive tackles much larger than him is impressive.

C Andre Gurode:  A

Gurode, in our opinion, had the best season of any Dallas’ linemen.  He gave up just three sacks, but hits and pressures are more representative of how well a player performed.  He allowed his man to pressure Romo just 2.27 percent of all pass plays, by far the best on the team, and did it while performing a task no other lineman was asked to do:  snap the ball.

RG Leonard Davis:  A-

It was difficult to determine whether to give Kosier or Davis a higher grade.  We ended up giving Davis the slightly higher grade because, while he yielded three more sacks than Kosier, he gave up a lower percentage of quarterback hits and pressures, and also did a fantastic job of not racking up penalties.  He allowed just four all season.

RT Marc Colombo:  C

Colombo’s numbers actually came out worse than we anticipated.  His sack numbers were respectable, but he allowed the highest percentage of QB hits on the team, and his pressures and penalties were nearly just as bad.  These numbers also don’t include the Cowboys’ playoff game in Minnesota, where Colombo allowed three sacks and got manhandled all game (albeit probably due to injury).

RT Doug Free:  B-

We were interested in discovering how well Free actually performed on the season and how his statistics compared to Colombo’s.  As we presumed, his numbers were about average.  He didn’t have the worst or best percentages in any category, but overall performed better than Colombo.  His hits, pressures, and penalty percentages were all lower than those of the man he replaced (particularly the percentage of hits yielded, which was about 2.5 times as low).

So there you have it.  In order of excellence, we rate the 2009 performance of the Cowboys’ linemen, in terms of pass protection, as follows:

1.  Andre Gurode:  A

2.  Leonard Davis:  A-

3.  Kyle Kosier:  B+

4.  Doug Free:  B-

5.  Marc Colombo:  C

6.  Flozell Adams:  D+

This is further evidence that Dallas should move up in the first round to select an offensive tackle for the future.  The numbers don’t lie.

In our next “Grading the ‘Boys” segment, we will grade the line’s run-blocking abilities.

Potential Draft Picks: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho

According to The Dallas Morning News, Cowboys' scouts are very high on Idaho guard Mike Iupati.

There is wide speculation that the Cowboys need an upgrade at guard, particularly a young player to replace Kyle Kosier.  I personally believe Kosier was the Cowboys’ most consistent lineman all season, and I plan to give statistics to back that up once I conclude my film study in the coming weeks.

Nonetheless, the Cowboys’ Senior Bowl contingent apparently “perked up” quite a bit when Idaho guard Mike Iupati’s name was called at weigh-ins.   Iupati is a player that NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock called perhaps the best lineman in the draft.  While that is a bit of a stretch (considering there is a solid chance Iupati will still be on the board when Dallas picks at No. 27), Iupati can be dominant at times.

Even with the Pro Bowl play of Leonard Davis and the under-appreciated Kyle Kosier, the Cowboys are dying to get younger at all of the o-line positions.  Additionally, the team desperately needs a quality backup guard, as Montrae Holland and Cory Procter are about the 52nd and 53rd best players on the team.  Dallas found a quality backup at tackle in Doug Free, and solidifying the guard position with a guy like Mike Iupati might make sense.

Scouting Report

At 6’5”, 325 lbs, Iupati has great size.  Surprisingly, he displays good athleticism despite his large frame.  On film, he routinely dominates in the running game, but does not show that same level of dominance in pass pro.  This is a concern considering the level of competition he played against.

At the Senior Bowl, Iupati was the consensus most impressive player all week in practice, but did not translate this success to the game.  He was dominant in run blocking, as usual, but struggled in pass pro.

Projection

Iupati figures to go anywhere from mid-first to early-second, so he may or may not be on the board at pick 27.