Which Ten Cowboys Will Go?

Jerry Jones recently claimed that the Cowboys will make a significant number of changes this offseason, adding perhaps 10 or 11 new players.  Said Jones, “One of the biggest challenges I’ve got in my role here is to be an agent of change this year.  We have got to look for ways to make changes.   That’s personnel.”

We think Anderson's play warrants his stay on the team.

While we find it hard to believe there will really be ten new Cowboys next season, Jones’ quote got us to thinking:  which ten current players might lose their job?  Our predictions are below, in no particular order.

1.  Deon Anderson- We detailed why Anderson’s valuable play makes us lean toward keeping him.  With the Cowboys’ increased emphasis on player conduct, though, Anderson could be a casualty.

2.  Patrick Watkins- He is an excellent special teams player, but the addition of another safety via the draft or free agency, or the movement of Alan Ball to full-time free safety could spell his doom.

3.  Junior Siavii- If Dallas selects a defensive tackle fairly high come April, Siavii will probably be out of a job.

4.  Steve Octavien- Octavien made some plays last preseason, but he just doesn’t figure to ever be more than a special teams player.

5.  Ken Hamlin- This is speculative, but there seem to be a variety of ways Hamlin will get released this offseason, i.e. signing Antrel Rolle, drafting a safety, etc.  We think Hamlin is a cerebral player who is set to rebound nicely in 2010, but perhaps Jerry Jones craves a ball-hawking safety enough to let him go.

Is it possible that Pat McQuistan's play is uglier than his hair? No, but he still isn't very good.

6.  Cory Procter- Procter’s release has been long overdo.  He is a sub-par lineman whose versatility has kept him around.  Had Dallas not missed out on Max Unger last year, Procter would already be gone.

7.  Duke Preston- Preston was already released last year after the team signed Chauncey Washington, only to be re-signed later.  If Dallas selects a guard in the draft, Preston is unlikely to stick around.

8.  Montrae Holland- Holland could stay if Preston and Procter are released because Dallas would be getting thin at guard.  The team also invested a fifth round pick in Holland last season.  They may want to see more return on their investment.

9.  Sam Hurd- Like Watkins, Hurd is a tremendous special teams player.  He also has potential at wide receiver, so his release would be dependent on if the team drafts another receiver, and subsequently how many WR’s they are willing to keep on the roster.

10.  Pat McQuistan- The Cowboys are almost certainly going to select a tackle in the early rounds of the draft.  They could also address the position again in the later rounds, and with second-year player Robert Brewster returning from a torn pectoral muscle, McQuistan’s time in Dallas has run out.

Film Study- The Importance of Deon Anderson Revisited: A Statistical View

Deon Anderson's plays per game remained relatively steady, while John Phillips saw a sharp spike in playing time when he was the second TE versus San Diego and New Orleans.

A few days ago we argued that, should Deon Anderson be found guilty on gun charges, the Cowboys should cut him.  His on-field production, we thought, was not enough to justify his stay on the team.  Further, the emergence of John Phillips, particularly at Deon Anderson’s fullback position, seemed to seal Anderson’s fate.  If Phillips’ blocking was at all comparable to Anderson’s, the versatility and pass-catching skill he exhibits would make him a better fit as an H-back type hybrid player.

As always, we dove into our film study database to determine just how valuable Deon Anderson was this past season in both the running and passing games.  The results shocked us.  Deon Anderson’s blocking ability, it appears, was sorely under-appreciated, especially by us.  Meanwhile, John Phillips’ youth shown through, as he was quite over-matched in the run game.

Anderson was on the field for 294 plays in 2009, while Phillips was in the Cowboys’ offensive package on 141 plays (a breakdown of each player’s plays-per-game is above).  Below is a chart detailing the effectiveness of each player.  Note that the sample size of plays for each player is large enough that we can discern meaningful, statistically-significant conclusions.

Dallas' yards-per-rush when Anderson was in the game was enormously higher than when Phillips was in the lineup, yet the yards-per-pass, surprisingly, remained about equal.

As you can see, the yards per rush for the Cowboys when Deon Anderson was in the ball game was significantly better than when Phillips was in the lineup.  Anderson’s 5.6 average is even more impressive when considering the large sample size of 221 rushes.  Phillips’ average of 3.7 yards-per-rush is particularly poor for a team that rushed the ball so well over the course of the season, and the sample size of 92 runs is large enough for us to conclude that the 1.9 yards-per-carry difference is due to a significant drop-off in blocking ability from Anderson to Phillips.

FB Deon Anderson's surprising success this season could complicate the Cowboys' desicion regarding his future with the club.

Perhaps even more surprising than these results, however, is the fact that the team’s yards-per-pass average was higher with Deon Anderson in the lineup.  While the .23 yard difference may be negligible, the fact that Deon Anderson provided the necessary protection to average the same yards-per-pass as a pass-catching threat like Phillips is meaningful.  While Phillips did snag seven balls (targeted nine times) for 62 yards (as opposed to Anderson’s one catch for 5 yards), his blocking ability is not yet refined enough to force opposing defenses to stay in their base personnel when he is in the game.  The team’s slightly better yards-per-pass average when Anderson is in the game also shows that his pass blocking makes up for this drop-off in receiving skills.

Thus, we must conclude that Deon Anderson’s blocking ability in both the running and passing games makes him a much better option at fullback than John Phillips at this time.  This is not to say, of course, that Phillips will not improve and become a better blocker, as he was only a rookie last season.  Phillips appears to have the work ethic and demeanor necessary to improve his game, but right now Deon Anderson, contrary to first glance, is much more valuable than any of us had thought.

Mailbag 2/8/10

Q:  Given Tony Romo’s above-average performance against the blitz, what do you feel is the best defense to use against him?

Rick B.

A: Great question.  I will be posting an in-depth evaluation concerning Romo’s performance versus the blitz once I finish my film study of the season, so be sure to check back for that.

Zone blitzes, such as the one shown above, lower the risk of giving up a big play and can confuse a quarterback, often taking away his ability to "throw hot" against the blitz.

Romo has proven year after year that his athleticism and ability to improvise make it extremely difficult to blitz him.  While you always want to get pressure on the quarterback, sending five or more defenders very often can be risky, as a failure to get to the quarterback can lend itself to giving up big plays, particularly against a quarterback like Romo who can extend a play so well.

Still, just sitting back in cover two or three and letting Romo pick you apart is not the answer either.  From what I have studied on film, the most effective way to attack Romo is by constantly changing up your approach and employing “sneaky” coverages.  Zone blitzes, for example, are something against which he has struggled in the past.  A zone blitz involves dropping back players who are not generally in coverage, such as defensive linemen, and sending linebackers or defensive backs in their place.  The reason this can be effective is it gives the immediate appearance of a blitz to the quarterback, but the defense can still drop eight men into coverage.  Thus, the risk of a blitz is lessened, while the upside is still available.

Expect Miles Austin to be dancing even more this offseason after he signs a long-term extension.

Ultimately, to combat Romo’s effectiveness versus the blitz, I would mix up unique coverages and zone blitzes, trying to not allow him to get comfortable or figure out what the defense is going to do pre-snap.  Perhaps showing strange defensive looks, such as the new “Amoeba” defense that teams such as Pittsburgh and Denver have implemented, would do the trick (the “Amoeba” defense is used during passing downs and is characterized by having no down-linemen and players shuffling around, confusing the quarterback and offensive line as to which players are rushing).  Still, containing Romo is easier said than done.

Q:  With Miles Austin a restricted free agent, does that mean he is free to sign with another club?  Will the Cowboys sign him long-term before that happens?

Todd Rowley, Sacramento, CA

A: Yes, Miles Austin is free to sign an offer sheet with another team, but Dallas then has seven days to match that offer.  If they choose to not do so, they would receive the highest compensation possible from a RFA, a first and a third-round pick.  I do expect the Cowboys to sign Austin long-term, as I see it as the #1 offseason priority.  Austin was a beast all season, and although he has only proved himself for one season, he is not the type of player who will give less effort when he gets his first huge check.

There is also a possibility that the ‘Boys could franchise Austin, meaning he would receive a one-year deal worth the average salary of the top five wide receivers in the NFL.  I see this as a long-shot, however, as Jerry Jones rarely decides to use the franchise tag.  I think the Cowboys have seen enough to know that Austin is their go-to receiver of the future.

Q:  You talked about what a great addition WR Jordan Shipley would be, but I don’t think there is room for him on the roster.  What wide receiver would the Cowboys let go?

Jennifer Miller, Exton, PA

Dallas signed Allen Rossum as a return specialist in '09, so drafting a returner who can also play wide receiver, such as Jordan Shipley, would be like having a more versatile Rossum.

A: That is a good point, and I should have addressed it in my previous article.  I definitely think there is room for another WR on the roster.  It is not uncommon for teams to keep six wide receivers, meaning Shipley, or another rookie, would join Austin, Williams, Crayton, Hurd, and Ogletree.  If Dallas ends up cutting Deon Anderson and using John Phillips as a FB/TE, that would open up a roster spot.  Also, don’t forget Dallas has receivers Jesse Holley and Manuel Johnson on the practice squad, so their emergence could alter the Cowboys’ plans.

If the Cowboys were to cut a player, I would expect it to be Sam Hurd.  Hurd is such a valuable special teams player, though, so I see them keeping six receivers over cutting him.

The main reason I think Shipley would be such a great fit in Dallas, however, is his return skills.  It just so happens he plays wide receiver, but any player with his ability to return is worth a roster spot.  He would be an immediate upgrade in the return department, and an eventual replacement for Patrick Crayton.  Also remember that Dallas signed Allen Rossum midseason as a return specialist (showing their lack of confidence in Crayton and Felix Jones at the time), so if you view Shipley in this way, he is simply a younger, more versatile Allen Rossum.

What should the ‘Boys do with Deon Anderson?

The Cowboys could have a difficult roster decision looming, as starting FB Deon Anderson was arrested earlier this week in Addison, TX for allegedly brandishing a loaded gun.  Anderson could face a future league-imposed suspension should the Cowboys retain him for the 2010 season.

FB Deon Anderson's future with Dallas is uncertain at best after his recent arrest.

In my opinion, the Cowboys should allow the legal system to play out and, should Anderson be found guilty, they should cut him immediately.  Dallas made it a point of emphasis this past offseason to rid themselves of players they determined to be potential distractions, i.e. Terrell Owens, Tank Johnson, Pacman Jones, Greg Ellis, and two of those players never even had trouble with the law.

Unfortunately for Deon Anderson, he does not have the natural ability of a T.O. or Greg Ellis.  While it is nice to believe that all NFL players get treated equally, that is just not the case.  Like it or not, star players receive more leeway, both on an off the field.  Deon Anderson is a solid fullback and a much-improved blocker, but his contributions to the Cowboys are not enough, in my opinion, for him to stay on the team should he be found guilty.

As I continue to progress through my film study of the season, I have noticed the Cowboys used TE John Phillips more and more at fullback as the season rolled along.  As long as they do not give up too much in the blocking department, which did not appear to be the case on film, this is a savvy move, as Phillips is a much bigger threat to make a play out of the backfield.  Opposing defenses must at least account for his presence, meaning any loss in blocking ability from Anderson to Phillips is more than made up for by Phillips’ playmaking abilities.  His versatility to line up at multiple positions also gives the defense less knowledge as to the Cowboys’ play call, as they could line up in spread just as easily as I-formation with Phillips in the game, a luxury that could not be afforded with Anderson in the lineup.

Rookie TE John Phillips' versatility softens the blow of a potential Anderson departure.

The greatest hole Anderson’s departure would leave would be on special teams, where he made 12 tackles in 2009.  This loss, however, is well worth the Cowboys making a statement by cutting Anderson and showing the team that this kind of behavior will not be tolerated.  Still, let’s hope for Anderson’s sake that these allegations are false, or at least exaggerated.